As soon as details began to emerge that Warsaw and NATO scrambled aircraft to defend against several Russian drones flying through Polish airspace, questions loomed about whether this was a deliberate incursion by Moscow, and how the intergovernmental alliance would respond.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared that the country is the “closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two.”
The government invoked Article 4, under which it can demand consultation with NATO members.
Though its allies lined up to condemn Russia, they were also careful to not label it as an attack, signalling that this is not a situation that warrants invoking the collective defence measure of Article 5, which stipulates that an attack on one is considered an attack on all of NATO.
The Polish government has been on high alert since nearby Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbour Ukraine in 2022. Russia has denied the incident was intentional, but it represents an unprecedented intrusion. And while NATO mulls its response, it faces the tough balance of deterring Moscow from future attacks, while not inviting further escalation.
Collateral damage
Poland shares a more than 500-kilometre border with Ukraine, and has already seen collateral damage from the latter’s war with Russia. The same year the Kremlin invaded Ukraine, two Polish residents were killed when a Ukrainian air defence missile went off-course.
In this most recent incident, during a mass Russian drone attack on Ukraine overnight, Poland said 19 objects entered its airspace and that its air force, supported by NATO, shot down those that posed a threat.
Polish officials say at least 14 drones have been found on the country’s territory, including one that crashed into the roof of a house in eastern Poland. Others were found in rural fields.
Most officials and many experts said they didn’t believe these were wayward drones, but rather an intentional act by a probing Kremlin.
“There’s too many of them for it to be an accident or to just be a result of [drone] jamming,” said Patrick Bury, a senior associate professor at the University of Bath.
“One or two, of course, but this is just too many.”
Warsaw has scrambled jets before because of apparent aerial threats from Russia, and it has accused Moscow of waging a hybrid war, including orchestrating arson on its territory.
“I think there’s a creeping narrative from the Polish government as to where we are right now, in terms of a potential Russian attack on NATO territory,” said Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, a Warsaw-based policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“Whether it’s cyber attacks, disinformation, election interference or provocations, we’ve seen the whole range of hybrid war tactics that they have.”
Prochwicz Jazowska pointed out that what happened overnight is the first time a NATO country has directly shot down Russian military weapons over NATO territory.
Prime Minister Mark Carney called Russia’s actions “reckless and escalatory,” adding that countries would remain vigilant against Moscow’s attempts to “widen and prolong the conflict.”
U.S. President Donald Trump, in one of his typical musings on social media, posted, “What is with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go.” It isn’t clear what he meant, and he has not yet elaborated further.
Trump spoke with Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki later on Wednesday. In a social media post, Nawrocki said he is consulting with NATO allies and that all of the conversations confirmed a unified position.
Russian Gerbera drones
Analysts who have viewed photos of the drones say they resemble the Russian Gerbera model, a relatively cheap UAV designed to look like the more powerful Shahed drones that frequently target Ukrainian cities with larger warheads.
The Gerbera is lighter and made of plywood and foam. It has frequently been deployed to act as a decoy, meant to overwhelm air defences.
It can carry an explosive payload, but a much smaller amount than the Shahed. Some of its models also have reconnaissance capabilities.
“If you wanted to map and test Polish and NATO air defences, it would be a good way to do it in the middle of a large attack against Ukraine, which happened last night,” said Bury.
He anticipates that a NATO response might include further bolstering air defence systems along the alliance’s eastern flank, and also questions how the drones were able to make it so far into Poland before being intercepted.
For its part, Russia’s Defence Ministry said it had carried out a drone attack on military facilities in western Ukraine overnight, but said there were no plans to hit targets in Poland.
It didn’t outright deny that it violated Polish airspace, but said its drones “which allegedly crossed the border” with the country had a range of no more than 700 kilometres.
The drones were found in a number of locations in Poland, including near Belarus, which Russia has previously used as a launchpad for attacks.
Minsk said that it shot down some drones that “lost their track” as a result of electronic jamming. Officials said that Belarus warned Poland and Lithuania about the UAVs.
Boosting defence
With Russia showing no sign of halting its war on Ukraine, Poland is expected to spend 4.7 per cent of its GDP on defence this year — a higher proportion than any other NATO member.
Prochwicz says the government is trying to make it clear to the population that its high defence spending is warranted.
It’s also trying to convince its allies to help it build an even stronger military.
“I hope that it will lead to a more broader strategic conversation about how NATO … aims to respond to further provocations and incursions … which will definitely occur. “
In his evening video address, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Europe needs to work on a joint defence system and that Ukraine could provide assistance and expertise about how to intercept drones.
“The Russians are testing the limits of what is possible. They are testing reactions,” Zelenskyy said.
“They are monitoring how NATO countries’ armed forces act, what they can do and cannot yet do.”
