Now that U.S. President Donald Trump has backed off his escalating threats to bomb Iran’s power plants, bridges and even destroy its civilization, attention turns to whether the warring sides can reach a full-fledged peace deal that lasts.
Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire came just 90 minutes before his deadline for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face an onslaught of strikes on its infrastructure.
The ceasefire does not mean the war is over. Here’s a look at what needs to happen over the next two weeks to move Iran, the U.S. and Israel toward peace.
How to resolve duelling peace plans?
The biggest obstacle is for the U.S. and Iran to reconcile the conditions that each side insist are necessary for an end to the war.
Iran has put forward a 10-point proposal that calls for significant concessions from the U.S. and Israel.
The plan includes compensating Iran for war damage, lifting all sanctions against the country, releasing the freeze on Iranian assets and withdrawing U.S. combat forces from all bases in the region, Reuters reported, citing Iranian media.
With the U.S and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, CBC’s chief correspondent Adrienne Arsenault asks Munk School of Global Affairs founding director Janice Stein if the deal can hold and what position it leaves both countries in.
Trump had dismissed the plan as “not good enough” on Monday, but in his social media post announcing the ceasefire he called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s framework for a peace deal remains the 15-point plan that Iran rejected two weeks ago. It includes a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency and limits on the country’s ballistic missile systems.
Nader Hashemi, an associate professor of Middle East and Islamic politics at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., remains cautious about the prospects for reaching an agreement.
“Obviously it’s a good thing that there is a ceasefire, but let’s not have any illusions. Two weeks can pass by very quickly,” Hashemi told CBC News Network shortly after Trump posted his announcement.
“What’s really required now is really intense diplomacy to prevent us from another catastrophe that seemed imminent just an hour ago,” Hashemi said.
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He believes there are key sticking points yet to be resolved in the two proposals, particularly Iran’s call for the U.S. to end all sanctions against the regime.
“Any lifting of the sanctions will be considered capitulation to Iranian demands,” said Hashemi.
Will the Strait of Hormuz stay open?
The central demand in Trump’s ultimatum to Iran was the opening of this crucial waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
Iran’s five-week blockade of the strait in response to the war triggered a global spike in energy prices.
While Iran said it has agreed to keep the strait open during the two-week ceasefire, there appear to be conditions.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement that safe passage through the strait “will be possible via coordinating with Iran’s Armed Forces.”
Hours after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that ‘a whole civilization will die tonight’ if Iran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the two countries agreed to a temporary ceasefire. Power & Politics hears from former UN prosecutor Payam Akhavan.
Iran’s plan also includes charging fees for ships to pass through the strait and using the money for reconstruction, The Associated Press reported Tuesday. The New York Times reported that the fee would total $2 million US per ship.
How will Trump sell the ceasefire?
Political observers in the U.S. have said for days that Trump was in search of an off-ramp that would allow him to end the war and declare that he had accomplished his mission.
In his social media post, Trump appeared to be laying the groundwork for such a declaration by explaining why he’d agreed to the ceasefire.
“The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump posted.
The U.S. may indeed have “met and exceeded” its military objectives, given how often Trump and his officials have moved the goalposts of what those objectives actually are.
The four most frequently cited have been eliminating Iran’s missile capabilities, destroying its navy, ending its support for militants outside its borders and ensuring the regime can never obtain a nuclear weapon.
Trump had previously declared the war to be won at least a dozen times before Tuesday.
What’s still very much up for debate is whether the war has accomplished anything to loosen the Islamic regime’s grip on power in Tehran and whether the U.S. is truly “very far along” the road to a long-term peace deal.
The next two weeks could shed light on both those questions.