Flying to a rally at General Motors in Michigan this week, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that “car companies are doing better than they’ve ever done” thanks to his tariffs .

“All because of Trump,” he said.

It was a message the Republican president repeated while touring a collection of new vehicles, predicting that “it’s amazing what tariffs will do for General Motors” before autographing a white Corvette commemorating America’s 250th anniversary.

He later told a crowd of cheering supporters that “Michigan is thriving.”

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That’s not exactly true, according to many metrics. Tariffs have cost businesses in Michigan and across the country billions of dollars while helping to stoke inflation that has continued to run hot —  despite Trump’s assurances his business background would wipe it out.

Many Americans believe tariffs have pushed prices higher and the war in Iran has increased gasoline prices, hurting consumer confidence in the economy while keeping Trump’s approval ratings low.

There are few places where contradictions between the president’s boasts and the economic reality of his tariffs are more likely to collide ahead of November’s midterm elections than in battleground Michigan, which holds its primary on Tuesday. Trump won the state in 2016 and then again in 2024, after it had flipped to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.

During Trump’s rally in Milford, northwest of Detroit, the crowd was adoring. But even some of his ardent supporters said prices are too high and tariffs had caused short-term economic pain — even as they still support him overall.

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Lisa Scherer, a 64-year-old who used to run a landscaping company and work as a bus driver and union steward, acknowledged high gas prices are “hurting a lot” and it’s “very rough” to afford things.

“But I’m just hoping, if we hang in there,” she said, emphasizing she still thinks the president is doing a good job.

Michigan and Canada have deep trade ties

Though the Supreme Court  struck down many of the tariffs Trump ordered upon first returning to the White House, his administration has launched new import taxes and recently invoked the Tariff Act of 1930 to accuse Canada of using discriminatory practices and plans to impose 50 per cent tariffs on many imports from that country.

Michigan relies on supply chains that are heavily integrated with Canada after decades of policies that encouraged reducing bilateral trade barriers. That included the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement from Trump’s first term. Trump chose not to renew that trade pact, setting up years of negotiations.

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GM said it was “honoured to spend time showcasing our vehicles and facilities” for Trump. But automakers have long said tariffs increase production costs — so much so that the president offered them a reprieve from his auto parts tariffs, extending in October what was supposed to have been a short-term rebate until 2030.

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Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters Canada is now stronger than it was before, in response to a question about what Ottawa got in return for multiple concessions to the U.S. amid the ongoing trade war.

Veteran Michigan pollster Bernie Porn said Trump’s rosy words can’t hide how his tariffs are helping intensify voters’ concerns about inflation and affordability.

“When I was listening to him, I said, ‘What planet are you on?'” Porn said.

Porn noted that some Republicans nationally are worried their voters won’t be motivated to turn out in November and “I doubt if Michigan is going to be very different.”

“He is like an anchor around Republicans,” Porn said.

Trump’s policies don’t bother Joe Miskovich, the 57-year-old owner of an aerospace business from Fenton, about 32 kilometres north of Milford, Mich. He said of tariffs that “the American public needs to look at the bigger picture.”

People need to see, Miskovich said, that “yes, granted, there might be a little higher increase in price. But the long-term effect is going to be absolutely positive to the nation.”

Trump is helping decide next week’s primaries

As he’s done in key midterm primary races nationwide, Trump has used his endorsements to help ensure candidates he sees as most loyal or potentially helpful to his policies prevail. In Michigan’s Republican gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, Trump has endorsed congressman John James over rival Perry Johnson.

Also speaking was former Rep. Mike Rogers, who’s again running for Senate after narrowly losing to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin two years ago.

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More national attention has been focused on the state’s Democratic Senate primary, which will decide if Rogers faces Rep. Haley Stevens or progressive favourite  Abdul El-Sayed.

But Rogers said Michigan needs a senator who promotes Trump’s agenda, not someone who works to stymie it.

“This is the time that we will stand up and get Michigan up off of her knees,” he said at Trump’s rally.

Scherer, who once ran the landscaping company, drove nearly five hours from her home in the suburbs of Columbus, Ohio, to see Trump’s speech. She’s nonetheless worried the president has left behind some supporters like herself who helped get him back to the White House.

“I’m brutally honest, like Trump is, aren’t I? He’s forgot about the people on a fixed income,” said Scherer, who lives on Social Security benefits of $1,100 per month US. “But I look at it like, I guess, no pain, no gain.”

Automakers plan to increase domestic production — eventually

Republican Michigan House Speaker Matt Hall praised tariffs at Trump’s rally, while also noting the president last year announced a new fighter jet mission that secured the future of the state’s Selfridge Air National Guard Base .

“This is what putting Michigan first looks like,” he said.

Some auto companies have pledged to ramp up U.S. production, yet those benefits aren’t being felt yet. GM announced in June 2025 it planned to invest $4 billion US to shift some vehicle production from Mexico to the U.S. starting next year.

Ford and Stellantis, which owns Chrysler, have a similar timeline for expanding domestic operations.

Toyota also said it would invest $3.6 billion US and relocate production of its Tacoma pickup from Mexico to Texas, but that will happen over roughly four years.

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In the meantime, Michigan has seen only modest increases in auto sector job creation during Trump’s second term, while jobs tied to auto parts manufacturing  declined by about 4,000 statewide through June when compared with the same month last year.

Michigan has lost 8,300 manufacturing jobs since Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April of last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Outwardly, the rally was a lovefest. When Trump told of encountering a “beautiful” waitress in Las Vegas during the 2024 campaign, a man in the audience bellowed, “You’re beautiful!”

Later, the crowd began chanting “10 more years!” when Trump talked about needing to leave office after January 2029.

“Trump is, like, No. 1. You know, he’s the best,” said Rose Stroud, 75, who attended the rally from Commerce, Michigan. “He thinks about the people, about what they need.”

Some attendees insisted the president should get the benefit of the doubt — even as concerns about kitchen table issues tick up.

“There’s always a method to the madness, and people sometimes don’t understand or get it,” said Roy Parks, 49, a self-employed handyman, photographer and videographer from Milford.

“But there’s always a reason he’s doing things a certain way, and it may not make sense at first, but after six, 12 months, it all comes together.”

He said the same goes for tariffs: “You may not like it at first, but it’s a short-term pinch, short-term pain, but long-term good. It works out in the end. It’s for the best.”

“When you rip off the Band-Aid right away, it stings,” Parks added. “But, after a few minutes, there’s no pain. You have to go through a little bit of pain at first to get to long-term good.”