Iran and the United States held hours of indirect negotiations Thursday over Tehran’s nuclear program but walked away without a deal, meaning the possibility of another Middle East war is still a risk as the massive fleet of U.S. aircraft and warships remain in the region.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who mediated the talks in Geneva, said there had been “significant progress in the negotiation” without elaborating.
But just before the talks ended, Iranian state television reported that Tehran was determined to continue enriching uranium, rejected proposals to transfer it abroad and sought the lifting of international sanctions, indicating it was not prepared to meet U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands.
Trump wants a deal to constrain Iran’s nuclear program, and he sees an opportunity while the country is struggling at home with growing dissent following nationwide protests. Iran also hopes to avert war but maintains it has the right to enrich uranium and does not want to discuss other issues, such as its long-range missile program and support for armed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Al-Busaidi said technical-level talks would take place next week in Vienna, home to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The UN’s atomic watchdog likely would be critical in any deal, but neither the Americans nor the Iranians offered any immediate comment.
If the U.S. attacks, Iran has said U.S. military bases in the region would be considered legitimate targets, putting at risk tens of thousands of American service members. Iran has also threatened to attack Israel, meaning a regional war could again erupt across the Middle East.
“There would be no victory for anybody — it would be a devastating war,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told India Today in an interview filmed Wednesday just before he flew to Geneva.
“Since the Americans’ bases are scattered through different places in the region, then unfortunately perhaps the whole region would be engaged and be involved, so it is a very terrible scenario.”
Ali Vaez, an Iran expert with the International Crisis Group, said it was a good sign that the Americans did not walk away immediately when Iran presented its latest proposal on Thursday.
“There might still not be a breakthrough at the end of this day, but the very fact that the U.S. team is returning shows that there is enough common ground between the two sides,” he said.
3rd meeting since 12-day war
The two sides held multiple rounds of talks last year that collapsed when Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran in June and the U.S. carried out heavy strikes on its nuclear sites, leaving much of Iran’s nuclear program in ruins, even as the full extent of the damage remains unclear.
Araghchi is representing Iran at the talks. Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer and friend of Trump who serves as a special Mideast envoy, is heading up the U.S. delegation with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The talks are again being mediated by Oman, an Arab Gulf country that’s long served as an interlocutor between Iran and the West.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said diplomats held “very intensive” negotiations, meeting with the Omani envoy and the head of IAEA. He said the Iranians felt there were “constructive proposals” offered on both nuclear issues and sanctions relief.
Trump wants Iran to completely halt its enrichment of uranium and roll back both its long-range missile program and its support for regional armed groups. Iran says it will only discuss nuclear issues and maintains its atomic program is for entirely peaceful purposes.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Wednesday that Iran is “always trying to rebuild elements” of its nuclear program. He said that Tehran is not enriching uranium right now, “but they’re trying to get to the point where they ultimately can.”
U.S. President Donald Trump justified bombing key Iranian nuclear facilities by claiming Iran was dangerously close to developing a nuclear weapon. But how could he be so sure? Andrew Chang examines Iran’s claim that its uranium enrichment program is purely for civilian energy — and why much of the West remains skeptical. Images provided by Getty Images, The Canadian Press and Reuters.
Iran has said it hasn’t enriched since June, but it has blocked IAEA inspectors from visiting the sites bombed by the U.S. Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press have shown activity at two of those sites, suggesting Iran is trying to assess and potentially recover material there.
The West and the IAEA say Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003. After Trump scrapped the 2015 nuclear agreement, Iran ramped up its enrichment of uranium to 60 per cent purity — a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 per cent.
U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to restart a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” While insisting its program is peaceful, Iranian officials have threatened to pursue the bomb in recent years.
Threat of military action sparks war fears
If the talks fail, uncertainty hangs over the timing of any possible U.S. attack.
If the aim of potential military action is to pressure Iran to make concessions in nuclear negotiations, it’s not clear whether limited strikes would work. If the goal is to remove Iran’s leaders, that will likely commit the U.S. to a larger, longer military campaign. There has been no public sign of planning for what would come next, including the potential for chaos in Iran.
As U.S. President Donald Trump’s Mideast ‘armada’ draws closer to Iran, CBC News has tracked the location and movements of naval ships and military aircraft in the region.
There is also uncertainty about what any military action could mean for the wider region. Tehran could retaliate against the American-allied nations of the Persian Gulf or Israel. Oil prices have risen in recent days in part due to those concerns, with benchmark Brent crude now around $70 US a barrel. Iran in the last round of talks said it briefly halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which one-fifth of all traded oil passes.
Satellite photos shot Tuesday and Wednesday by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by the AP appeared to show that American vessels typically docked in Bahrain, the home of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, were all out at sea.
The 5th Fleet referred questions to the U.S. military’s Central Command, which declined to comment. Before Iran’s attack on a U.S. base in Qatar during the closing days of the war last June, the 5th Fleet similarly scattered its ships at sea to protect against a potential attack.