While the Strait of Hormuz has been closed to most of the world’s marine traffic, experts say Iran appears to be letting a select number of ships pass from countries not aligned with its aggressors.
Marine traffic data shows how the stream of ships passing through the key waterway has slowed to a trickle since the war began nearly a month ago due to fears of being attacked.
Iran has launched attacks on Persian Gulf shipping and threatened more, stranding hundreds of vessels and 20,000 seafarers. Energy exports, including crude oil from Saudi Arabia and liquefied natural gas from Qatar, have been effectively halted.
UN Trade and Development estimates as many as 151 ships were transiting through the strait daily in February.
Since the war began, that number has dwindled to around four or five a day, said Jonathan Schroden, chief research officer for the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analyses.
Ships sailed outside normal channels
Traffic in the past week has consisted mainly of Iranian oil tankers departing and bulk carriers arriving in Iran with cargoes of grain and other commodities, according to data from maritime specialists Lloyd’s List Intelligence and Reuters analysis.
Getting a complete picture of just what vessels are getting through has been difficult because some ships have turned off their geo tracking systems as they make their way through the waterway, Schroden said.
But the marine traffic data that is available shows that a handful of ships have gotten through by going outside normal shipping channels in the strait, Schroden said, including one linked to Pakistan.
“When [the ship] got to where those lanes are, they veered sharply north, went around a couple of the islands there, and then hooked the Iranian coastline the rest of the way out,” he said.
Other vessels appear to have gotten through the strait following a similar path, he said.
“All of that suggests that those countries are negotiating safe passage directly with Iran, and that Iran is somehow guiding them on a path that is safe for those ships to make it through.”
Iran has repeatedly stated that some vessels may pass, but said Tehran would determine which vessels would do so, adding that those linked to the U.S. or Israel or their allies would be blocked.
“Aggressor parties — namely, the United States and the Israeli regime — as well as other participants in the aggression, do not qualify for innocent or non-hostile passage,” Iran said in a circular sent on March 24 to member countries of UN shipping agency the International Maritime Organization.
Iran letting select ships pass
Aside from Iranian ships, the bulk of the ships that have been getting through are linked to Pakistan, China and India, Schroden said.
This suggests Iran “seems to have drawn a sort of clear line” between ships from countries tied to its aggressors and the ships that aren’t.
According to maritime intelligence company Lloyd’s List, more than 20 vessels have taken a “Tehran-approved route” to get through the strait as of March 23.
There have also been reports of tankers stopping by Qeshm Island, one of the small islands in the north of the strait, Jemima Shelley, a senior research analyst at the U.S.-based advocacy organization United Against Nuclear Iran.
“This is where they will be seeking their permission in clearance to continue their transit,” she said.
“The clearance is usually about them checking the ownership of the tanker, the insurance of the tanker and the crew of the tanker and sort of trying to make sure that none of these are connected to what Iran would call the aggressors.”
As war erupts in the Middle East, Iran is warning vessels not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For The National, CBC’s Lyndsay Duncombe breaks down why what happens in the vital shipping route could have a global impact and potentially give Iran leverage over U.S. President Donald Trump.
Shelley says this demonstrates how Iran is exerting control over the strait as the conflict drags on, noting that the shipping industry and governments will be looking at the vulnerability of the strait going forward.
“This conflict is really putting the spotlight on that.”
Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the country released its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
But he extended that deadline on Monday, when it would have expired, telling reporters the U.S. was talking with a “respected” Iranian leader and claiming the Islamic Republic was eager for a deal to end the war.