U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” missile defence system, which Canada has expressed interest in joining, is raising questions about the project’s cost and feasibility as well as concerns about a space-based arms race.
Trump’s plan is modelled after the Iron Dome that protects Israel — a land mass smaller than Vancouver Island — and aims to be more robust and hundreds of times bigger.
The Iron Dome is mainly built to defend against lower-flying threats like short-range rockets, mortars and shells, while Trump and other top U.S. officials say the proposed Golden Dome would block missiles fired from other countries and from space, weaving together existing technologies with future tech that still needs to be developed.
Alistair Edgar, a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont., says Trump is talking about space-based detection and interception that would result in more weapons in space.
“Adversaries who don’t like that idea can put their own weapons in space to destroy satellites that we would be using for detection,” he said, noting this opens up the possibility for space-based arms races.
“And right now, nobody’s supposed to do weaponizing space. Some people are sneaking some things up there, and we condemn them when they do.”
Carney says Canada ‘looking at’ participation in U.S. Golden Dome
In response to a reporter’s question on Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he is ‘not going to put a price tag’ on the U.S. project to build a multi-purpose missile shield known as the Golden Dome, which Ottawa has confirmed it’s talking to the U.S about. Speaking at the news conference on Parliament Hill, Carney said missiles are a serious threat that Canada faces.
China, Russia express concerns
The U.S., Russia, and China have the most developed military space capabilities, but numerous other countries are developing their own space weapons, according to a recent report from the Secure World Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to promoting peaceful and sustainable uses of outer space.
If the dome is built, Edgar says any countries that don’t like it would do everything they could to design systems to counter it.
He says that could negate the deterrent of “mutually assured destruction,” which is the idea that countries with nuclear weapons refrain from using them on each other because they know their adversaries can respond in kind.
“Will China have to invest in its own version, as well as in technologies to attack the systems that the United States would deploy?” he asked. “There’s a whole mess of stuff that gets into.”
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said Wednesday that China was “seriously concerned” about the Golden Dome proposal and urged Washington to abandon it, adding that it carried “strong offensive implications” and heightened the risks of the militarization of outer space and an arms race.
A Kremlin spokesperson said such a program could force talks between Moscow and Washington about nuclear arms control in the foreseeable future.
Asked about the project Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said participation has been discussed at a high level with U.S. officials and will be evaluated.
He said missile defence, including missiles that “in the not too distant future, could come from space,” are threats the Canadian government is taking seriously.
“We are conscious that we have an ability, if we so choose, to complete the Golden Dome with investments and partnership, and it’s something that we are looking at.”
Can it even be built?
Experts who spoke with CBC News say Trump’s three-year timeline for construction and $175-billion price tag are unrealistic, with Edgar suggesting a 20-year time frame might be more feasible, with costs potentially running as high as $1 trillion.
The Congressional Budget Office also estimates the project could cost hundreds of billions more than the $175 billion US figure and take 20 years to develop.
“We are talking something very futuristic, massively expensive, and something that has never been done in terms of just the sheer size and the technical expertise that would be involved in such a system,” former Canadian defence minister Peter MacKay told CBC’s Power and Politics.
Should Canada join Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’?
As Ottawa confirms its interest in potentially joining U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ missile-defence program, Power & Politics hears from former defence minister Peter MacKay on what Canada’s contribution could look like, and whether it’s worth the effort.
Getting it built would require budget approvals over multiple presidential terms, says Patrycja Bazylczyk, program manager and research associate with the missile defence project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
“This really depends on making this a bipartisan issue, in order to sustain sort of momentum and funding over multiple administrations, and really prioritizing homeland defence,” she said.
Beth Fischer, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Woodsworth College who writes about U.S. defence policy, says it’s hard to assess the feasibility of a project that uses technologies that don’t yet exist.
She says former U.S. President Ronald Reagan faced similar questions and criticisms when he proposed the Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) in 1983, dubbed the “Star Wars” project.
SDI envisioned stationing a constellation of missiles and powerful laser weapons in low-Earth orbit that could intercept a ballistic nuclear missile launched from anywhere on Earth.
But the idea never came to fruition mainly because of technological hurdles, high cost and concerns it would violate an anti-ballistic missile treaty that has since been abandoned.
“At that time, it was criticized because the technology didn’t exist, and it was going to take a long time to develop, much less deploy,” Fischer said.
“And we have the exact same concerns this time around.”
What’s the upside for Canada?
However, Fischer does not dismiss the value of the proposal, saying Canada should be thinking about its long-term security, especially with the arctic becoming increasingly vulnerable as climate change progresses.
She says it’s also important to think about protecting the satellites we depend on for day-to-day life, given at least four countries — the U.S., Russia, China and India — have proven they have the ability to shoot satellites down.
Exactly how much of Canada would be protected by the Golden Dome, what the country’s role would be if it joined and how much it would pay, are still open questions.
Canada already tracks North American skies through NORAD and feeds that data into the U.S. missile-defence program.
But Canada never officially joined the U.S. National Missile Defence Program in the 2000s, meaning Canadians can’t participate in any potential decisions about when to launch a strike against an incoming object.
Fischer suspects Trump may have played up the idea of Canada paying its “fair share” in the press to calm concerns about the cost of the project.
She says Canada’s potential involvement could result in a possible economic benefit from research and development, but she notes that spin-off might not be significant, and would depend on how big a role the country plays.
“If we’re treated as junior partners, we might not be working on the most innovative or most cutting-edge technologies,” she said.
